Stage 0: RESEARCH BRIEF -- Koatji City Capture Playbook
**Evo-Cubed | Research Engine Output** **Date:** 2026-03-19 **Topic:** What does it take to systematically capture a US city for a plant-based oat milk brand, city by city? **Prior Evolutions Referenced:** 4 (koatji-gtm, koatji-miami-beachhead, koatji-outreach-v3, koatji-gtm/path-c-iaas)
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Stage 0: RESEARCH BRIEF -- Koatji City Capture Playbook
Evo-Cubed | Research Engine Output
Date: 2026-03-19
Topic: What does it take to systematically capture a US city for a plant-based oat milk brand, city by city?
Prior Evolutions Referenced: 4 (koatji-gtm, koatji-miami-beachhead, koatji-outreach-v3, koatji-gtm/path-c-iaas)
---
1. What Exists Today -- Koatji's Current State
Pipeline and Infrastructure
The Milkmen/Koatji operation has been built across 4 prior Evo3 runs. The current state as of 2026-03-19:
| Asset | State | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Prospect database | 3,500+ records across 22 cities | Supabase `wovknbcvxjvayfdflxkn`, `sweep_prospects` table |
| Outreach Command Center | 16 files, ~4,978 lines, 10-tab React shell | `OutreachCommandCenter.tsx`, `useOutreach.ts`, `GuidedSendPanel.tsx` etc. |
| Mail Bridge | Python HTTP server, AppleScript Mail.app, GPT-5-mini classifier | `mail_bridge.py` (1,348 lines), LaunchAgent `com.koatji.mail-bridge` |
| Resend Email Pipeline | 6 Edge Functions (send, batch, follow-up, tracking, unsubscribe, AI-generate) | Supabase Edge Functions on milkmen project |
| Pipeline Automation | 9-phase sweep/enrich/score/email flow | `koatji_ig_pipeline.py`, 3 Supabase edge functions |
| NYC Field Routes | 25 curated shops across 5 walking routes (Midtown) | `koatji-field-routes-midtown.txt` |
| Warm Lists | SFL, NYC, LA CSVs (headers only -- data in Supabase) | `koatji-sofla-field-list.csv`, etc. |
| Graduated Send Cadence | 10/25/50/100 per week scaling | `outreach-config.ts` |
| Sequence Engine | 3-touch default, JSONB steps | `email_sequences` table, `prospect_sequence_state` |
| Accounts Pipeline | potential -> high_interest -> sampled -> committed -> odeko_setup -> first_order -> reorder | `AccountsTracker.tsx` |
Actual Traction (Hard Numbers)
| Metric | Count | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Emails sent (total) | ~97 | outreach-v3 Stage 0 (campaign start 2026-03-16) |
| Responses received | 15+ | outreach-v3 Stage 0 |
| Response rate (where measured) | ~16 | |
| Committed accounts (hot/interested) | 7 Miami accounts | outreach-v3 Stage 0 |
| Named committed accounts | Caracas Bakery (3 doors), Mane Coffee, VI Coffee Bar (sampled) | Prior evolutions |
| Current daily send limit | 10/day (Week 1 cadence) | outreach-config.ts |
| Pipeline stage distribution | Unknown exact, mostly potential/high_interest | AccountsTracker pipeline |
Market Coverage by City
| City | Prospects | HOT | WARM | Pipeline Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 1,833 | 0 | 0 | IG scoring in progress |
| New York | 1,015 | 15 | 154 | IG complete, no Prospeo |
| South Florida (aggregate) | ~500 | 134 | 175 | COMPLETE |
| Fort Lauderdale | 52 | 18 | 24 | Complete |
| Miami | 44 | 18 | 10 | Complete |
| Doral | 45 | 11 | 15 | Complete |
| Brooklyn | 37 | 0 | 0 | No ICP scoring |
| Other cities (18) | ~400+ | minimal | minimal | Search/enrich only |
---
2. Competitor City Expansion Strategies -- How Others Did It
Oatly: The Barista Market Developer Model
Oatly's US expansion (2017-present) is the definitive playbook for city-by-city specialty coffee penetration:
Structure: Hired "Barista Market Developers" (BMDs) -- one per city. Not salespeople. Baristas with commercial instincts. Job postings found for NYC (Lead + regular), Chicago, Singapore, Mexico City, Munich, London (South + South West), Bucharest. Estimated 20-40 BMDs globally based on job posting patterns.
Playbook per city:
1. BMD moves to city. Spends 2-4 weeks visiting every significant independent specialty coffee shop.
2. Builds genuine relationships with baristas, owners, roasters, machine suppliers.
3. Demonstrates Barista Edition at the bar -- pours, steams, makes drinks in front of the barista.
4. Events: Oatly-led or co-hosted with local cafes. Latte art competitions. Pop-ups.
5. No direct selling. The BMD creates demand through relationships. The distribution partner (UNFI, KeHE, or regional) fulfills orders.
6. Budget: localized marketing budget per BMD, managed per-city.
7. Timeline: 6-12 months to establish meaningful presence in a city. 18-24 months to saturate.
What Oatly had that Koatji doesn't: $200M+ in VC funding, national distributor relationships (UNFI, KeHE), a team of 20+ BMDs operating in parallel, and an established brand from 20 years of European operations.
What Koatji has that Oatly didn't at launch: The koji fermentation story is genuinely novel. Oatly was "oat milk, but branded." Koatji is "fermented oat milk" -- a new category. The novelty creates organic word-of-mouth that Oatly had to manufacture through provocative outdoor advertising and guerrilla stunts.
Minor Figures: The Coffee-Culture-Native Approach
Minor Figures (UK-founded, now US) took a different route:
- Brand identity built around coffee culture, not plant milk as a category. Packaging, events, and content all speak "coffee" first, "plant-based" second.
- Wholesale-first: They target specialty coffee shops with a Barista Oat Milk SKU. Wholesale pricing found at Barista Underground: competitive with Oatly.
- Community over sales force: Minor Figures sponsors barista competitions, coffee festivals, and local roaster collaborations. Their expansion is through the specialty coffee social graph, not territory-by-territory field reps.
Califia Farms: The Distribution Infrastructure Play
Califia Farms ($225M raised) took the infrastructure-heavy approach:
- National distributor relationships (UNFI, KeHE, Walmart, Target) provide shelf presence at scale.
- Foodservice via Uproot acquisition: Dispensing machines on 150+ college campuses and dining locations.
- "Third wave" coffee shop targeting with Barista Blend products, but through distributor catalog rather than field teams.
- Innovation cadence: Rapid SKU expansion (pistachio, hazelnut barista blends in 2025) to fill more cafe menu positions.
The lesson: Califia scaled through distribution infrastructure, not city-by-city cultural infiltration. This works when you have $225M. It does not work when you have $5K and one person.
---
3. The US Specialty Coffee Market Landscape
Total Addressable Market
| Metric | Number | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Total Coffee & Snack Shops in US (2025) | 91,219 | IBISWorld |
| Specialty Coffee Shops in US | 31,000+ | SCA / IBISWorld |
| Independent operators ( | ||
| Independent specialty shops (estimated) | 15,000-16,000 | 50 |
| Coffee shops offering plant milk ( | ||
| Plant milk usage that is oat ( | ||
| Industry revenue (2025) | $74.3B | IBISWorld |
City-Level Density Estimates
No single source provides specialty coffee shop counts by metro. From Koatji's own pipeline data and industry reports, estimated counts for the three target cities:
| City Metro | Estimated Indie Specialty Shops | Koatji Pipeline Coverage | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida (Miami-Dade + Broward + Palm Beach) | 400-600 | ~500 | 80-100 |
| New York Metro | 2,500-3,500 | 1,015 | 29-40 |
| Los Angeles Metro | 2,000-3,000 | 1,833 | 61-92 |
These estimates are triangulated from: Koatji's Google Places sweep data (which intentionally targets specialty/independent, not chains), SCA density reports, and the 31K national figure distributed by metro population.
Odeko as Distribution Leverage
Odeko is a critical piece of the puzzle. Key facts:
- Serves 17,000+ independent F&B businesses (up from 14,000 in early 2025)
- Warehouses in 16 major US markets
- Miami is a recent market addition (confirmed 2025 expansion)
- West Coast: Seattle, Portland, LA, Northern California
- Other confirmed markets: NYC, Dallas, Portland
- Next-day delivery from local warehouses
- Cafe owners already use Odeko for ordering supplies
Strategic implication: If Koatji is listed on Odeko, any cafe already on the platform can add it to their order with zero logistics friction. The conversion question becomes entirely about willingness, not capability. Odeko handles warehousing, delivery, and invoicing.
---
4. Unit Economics of B2B Oat Milk (Best Available Data)
Wholesale Pricing Benchmarks
| Product | Retail/Unit | Estimated Wholesale/Case | Case Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oatly Barista Edition (32oz) | $5.99-6.49 | $36-42/case | 12 units | |
| Minor Figures Barista Oat (32oz) | $5.49-5.99 | $33-38/case | 12 units | |
| Califia Barista Blend (32oz) | $4.99-5.49 | $30-36/case | 12 units | |
| Koatji Barista Oat & Koji (32oz) | $8.99 (retail at The Eddy) | $48-65/case (estimated) | 12 units | |
| Generic foodservice oat milk (gallon) | $6.97/gal average | $28-42/case | 6x1gal |
Koatji's premium positioning means wholesale price is likely 30-60
Per-Account Revenue Model
| Metric | Conservative | Moderate | Aggressive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cases/month per cafe | 4 | 8 | 15 |
| Wholesale $/case | $54 | $54 | $54 | ||
| Monthly revenue/account | $216 | $432 | $810 | |
| Annual revenue/account | $2,592 | $5,184 | $9,720 | |
| Margin (distributor model, ~15-20 | |||
| Margin (DSD model, ~30-40 |
Key insight: At $216-432/month per account, you need 23-46 accounts to reach $10K MRR. 50 accounts at moderate volume = $21,600 MRR = $259K ARR.
Customer Acquisition Cost
From prior evolution data and current traction:
| Method | Est. CAC | Conversion Rate | Time to First Order |
|---|---|---|---|
| Field visit (barista handshake) | $50-80 (samples + gas + time) | 15-25 | |
| Cold email (pipeline) | $5-15 (Prospeo + ESP) | 1-5 | |
| Odeko listing (passive) | Near-zero marginal | Unknown -- depends on catalog visibility | Ongoing |
| Referral from existing account | Near-zero | 30-50 | |
| Content/inbound | $0-20 per lead | 5-15 |
---
5. Constraints -- What Limits City Capture Speed
Hard Constraints
1. Single operator. Mohamed is the sales engine, brand ambassador, and strategic lead. No full-time team. Kevin (DSD, part-time), Carson (unconfirmed). This limits parallel city execution to one at a time.
2. Working capital. Prior evolutions estimated $3K-5K for a 30-day sprint. At Koatji's premium wholesale price, 20 cases for seeding = $1,080-1,300. Storage, gas, booth fees, Prospeo credits add another $1,500-2,000. Total 30-day city sprint budget: ~$3K-5K.
3. Koatji wholesale terms. The relationship is confirmed (emails sending from [email]), but wholesale pricing, MOQ, and sample allocation specifics are not documented in the codebase. The prior evolutions all flagged this as the gating blocker.
4. Email domain warm-up. `[email]` domain needs DNS verification per outreach-v3 research. Graduated cadence (10/day Week 1) means email cannot be a volume channel for 4-6 weeks.
5. Odeko listing status. Distribution via Odeko is named in the pipeline stages but Odeko listing confirmation is not documented. If Koatji is not yet on Odeko's catalog in each target city, the "zero friction ordering" advantage doesn't exist.
Soft Constraints
6. Travel logistics. Operating in SFL currently. NYC and LA require travel. Each city sprint requires physical presence for 1-3 weeks.
7. Content creation bandwidth. Every shop visit could be content (Path E from the question). But filming, editing, and posting while also doing sales visits splits attention.
8. Seasonal timing. Miami: iced drinks dominate March-November. NYC: hot drinks dominate October-April. LA: iced year-round. Product performance across temperature profiles matters per-city.
9. Pipeline data completeness varies by city. SFL: complete. NYC: partially scored, no Prospeo. LA: partially captured. Other cities: search/enrich only.
---
6. Lessons from Prior Koatji Evolutions
What Worked (Validated by Traction)
- **16
- 7 committed Miami accounts from a combination of email and field work. The pipeline-to-field handoff is functional.
- Split-screen Guided Send (email + IG side-by-side) enables rapid queue processing with keyboard shortcuts. Mohamed can review and send 40-50 emails per hour.
- 3-thread background loop (sent-folder watcher, reply watcher, sequence advancer) automates follow-up without manual tracking.
- Walking route format (NYC Midtown) is operationally sound -- 5 routes x 5 stops, walkable, all 4.5+ rated, all independent.
What Failed or Stalled
- Email was never sent until March 16, 2026. The pipeline sat dormant for months. The technology was ready. The execution gap was human: nobody pressed send.
- LA pipeline incomplete. 1,833 prospects, 218/552 IG captured, zero scored. This has been "in progress" across multiple evolutions.
- Koatji wholesale terms remain undocumented. Every evolution flags this. No evolution resolves it with documented terms.
- Carson's availability never confirmed. The two-agent seeder/closer model was designed for Carson + Mohamed. Carson has not appeared as an active participant in any evolution's traction data.
- CafeIQ (Path C from prior evolution) never built. The SaaS pivot was explored but correctly deferred -- milk revenue must exist before platform revenue.
Key Insight from Prior Evolutions
The most important finding from the 4 prior Koatji evolutions is this: the pipeline is excellent but the execution gap is always the same -- a single operator who must simultaneously be the sales rep, delivery driver, content creator, relationship builder, and strategic thinker. No amount of pipeline sophistication solves this. City capture at scale requires either (a) cloning Mohamed's effort across hired BMDs (Oatly model), (b) eliminating field work through distribution leverage (Odeko/Califia model), or (c) finding a compounding mechanism where each account makes the next account easier (network effects/referrals/content).
---
7. Open Questions for Stage 1
1. What is the minimum viable city capture? Is it 10 accounts? 25? 50? The answer determines how long you stay in each city and when you move to the next.
2. Can Odeko listing replace field work? If Koatji is on Odeko in Miami and NYC, does a cafe owner browsing the Odeko catalog discover and order Koatji without a field visit?
3. What is the right balance between depth (saturate one city) and breadth (establish presence in three)? Oatly spent 12-18 months per city with dedicated BMDs. Koatji has one person and three cities in 9 months.
4. Is the 16
5. What reorder rate locks in an account? A cafe that orders once and never reorders is not a captured account. What's the minimum reorder frequency that counts as "captured"?
6. How does the Solex Fine Foods NYC distribution deal change the NYC playbook? If Solex handles NYC delivery, Mohamed's role shifts from DSD operator to relationship opener.
7. What is the actual Koatji wholesale price per case? Until this is documented, all margin calculations are estimates.
8. Can content from city A create inbound demand in city B?** A TikTok of a Miami barista steaming Koatji might generate a DM from an LA cafe owner. This cross-city content effect could change sequencing.
---
Sources
### Internal
- `[home]/Desktop/evo-cube-output/stage0-koatji-gtm-research.md` (2026-03-06)
- `[home]/Desktop/evo-cube-output/koatji-miami-beachhead/` (2026-03-07, 4 files)
- `[home]/Desktop/evo-cube-output/koatji-outreach-v3/stage0-research.md` (2026-03-18)
- `[home]/Desktop/evo-cube-output/koatji-gtm/stage1-path-c-iaas.md` (2026-03-07)
- `[home]/Desktop/milkmendelivery/koatji-field-routes-midtown.txt` (2026-03-18)
- Supabase project `wovknbcvxjvayfdflxkn` tables (referenced via prior evolution queries)
### External
- [IBISWorld -- Coffee & Snack Shops US](https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/number-of-businesses/coffee-snack-shops-united-states/) -- 91,219 shops, 50
- [2025 Independent Coffee Shop Industry Report](https://www.coffeeshopkeys.com/post/the-2025-independent-coffee-shop-industry-report)
- [Oatly BMD Job -- NYC Lead](https://jobs.coefficientcap.com/companies/oatly-2/jobs/37377988-barista-market-developer-lead-nyc) -- role spec, responsibilities, grassroots model
- [Oatly BMD Job -- NYC](https://jobs.coefficientcap.com/companies/oatly-2/jobs/46367027-barista-market-developer-nyc) -- updated 2026 posting
- [Oatly Growth Strategy -- MatrixBCG](https://matrixbcg.com/blogs/growth-strategy/oatly) -- barista-first, local events, partner co-branding
- [Oatly Marketing Strategy -- Business Model Analyst](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/oatly-marketing-strategy/) -- guerrilla, BMD program
- [Odeko -- AlleyWatch $96M raise](https://alleywatch.com/2025/03/odeko-independent-cafe-coffee-shop-food-beverage-operations-management-platform-dane-atkinson/) -- 17,000+ businesses, 16 markets, Miami expansion
- [Odeko Acquires Six Degrees Coffee](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/odeko-acquires-six-degrees-coffee-releases-mobile-supply-app-302565105.html) -- West Coast expansion
- [Califia Farms -- Food Business News](https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/25897-califia-farms-plant-based-milks-arent-alternatives-anymore) -- "third wave" targeting
- [Califia Farms Barista Blends -- Dairy Reporter](https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2025/05/13/califia-farms-debuts-pistachio-and-hazelnut-barista-blends/) -- SKU expansion
- [Minor Figures Wholesale -- Barista Underground](https://www.baristaunderground.com/products/minor-figures-oat-milk) -- pricing benchmarks
- [Oat Milk Prices -- Toast POS](https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/on-the-line/oat-milk-prices) -- $6.97/gal average wholesale
- [Specialty Coffee Market -- Coherent Market Insights](https://www.coherentmarketinsights.com/industry-reports/specialty-coffee-market) -- 7.03
- [US Coffee Market -- Mordor Intelligence](https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/united-states-coffee-market)
- [Koatji Wholesale Page](https://koatji.com/pages/wholesale)
- [Koatji Retail Partners](https://koatji.com/blogs/retail-partners)
- [Koatji Ambassador Program](https://koatji.com/pages/ambassador)
- [Is Dairy Making a Comeback -- Perfect Daily Grind](https://perfectdailygrind.com/2025/08/dairy-popularity-oat-milk-specialty-coffee-shops/)
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